N1
がいぜんせい (gaizensei)
蓋然性
probability, likelihood, possibility
💡 ポイント (Nuance)：
Refers to the degree to which something is likely to happen or be true. Similar to 可能性 (kanousei) but often implies a more objective or logical assessment of probability rather than just a general possibility. Used in formal contexts, especially in statistics, philosophy, or academic discussions.
📝 例文 (Example)
科学的な分析により、その仮説の蓋然性が高まった。
Scientific analysis increased the probability of that hypothesis.
確認クイズ (Practice)
JLPT本番形式の問題で「蓋然性」の使い方を確認！
このプロジェクトが成功する_______は非常に高い。
🎉 正解 / Correct!
日本語: 「成功する」の度合いを客観的に評価する文脈なので、「蓋然性」（確からしさ、見込みの高さ）が適切です。「可能性」も意味は通じますが、よりフォーマルで客観的なニュアンスを持つ「蓋然性」がN1語彙として求められます。
English: In the context of objectively evaluating the 'degree of success,' '蓋然性' (probability, likelihood) is appropriate. While '可能性' (possibility) also conveys meaning, '蓋然性' carries a more formal and objective nuance, making it suitable for N1 vocabulary.
English: In the context of objectively evaluating the 'degree of success,' '蓋然性' (probability, likelihood) is appropriate. While '可能性' (possibility) also conveys meaning, '蓋然性' carries a more formal and objective nuance, making it suitable for N1 vocabulary.
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